Thimphu
is a building site, a collection of almost new and half-formed
structures. Since its establishment as the permanent capital
in 1952-3, when there was little more than a Dzong surrounded
by a small collection of huts, the town has witnessed a dramatic
expansion into a spread out settlement of some 35,000 inhabitants.
As the political and administrative center, it has become the
fulcrum for modern development initiatives and a symbol of the
nation's future. What is revealed is an eclectic mix of old
and new, as very different worlds coalesce. Government guidelines
have determined that architecture and dress retain their traditional
character, a move that provides the impression of continuity.
Yet this rather messy and congested urban environment of concrete,
cars and corrugated iron is somewhat distanced from its country
cousins. The ubiquitous dzong, monasteries and chortens are
now complemented by the necessary functionality of shopping
malls and housing colonies. An abounding and sometimes gaudy
variety of imported goods share space with more simple and artistic
traditional wares. The powerful elite, astute businessmen and
women, highly educated civil servants and overseas development
workers pass hesitant foreign and domestic visitors, recent
rural migrants and red-robed monks.
Since the inception of planned development, policy interventions
have focused on the universal provision of social services
and physical infrastructure. The vast majority of the population
have thus benefited from modernizing processes in very tangible
ways. However, to successfully transform society, individuals
will require the appropriate opportunities, and the necessary
capacities and capabilities, to suitably fulfill their innate
potentials and meet their perceived needs. There is a risk
of significant gaps emerging between traditional rural and
modern urban environments. Furthermore, power may become polarized
and it is common for political vacuums to occur. The manner
in which society reacts to the host of new possibilities and
potentials is of critical importance. Social changes associated
with modernization are inherently destabilizing and often
ambiguous as to its outcomes. Aiming to effect a steady and
balanced transition Bhutan now faces a host of new complex
challenges.
Uneven trends are emerging that have the potential to jeopardize
successful social evolution. One of the greatest challenges
facing the nation is the rapid rate of population growth.
If the current growth rate of 3.1% per annum remains unchecked,
then the population will double in 23 years. The country's
demographic transition, with 43% of the population currently
under 15 years of age, will mean that growth in the demand
for jobs will far exceed supply. Indeed, it is estimated that
a total of 267,000 jobs need to be created in the next 20
years, even under the most favorable demographic assumptions.
The requirements of a fast expanding population could undermine
social stability, creating political and social stresses and
placing unsustainable pressures on the natural resource base.
Thimphu may not be characteristic of the greater part of
the country, neither possessing its medieval ambiance or its
picturesque beauty, yet it is an integral part. With the development
process comes increased expectations. Rural-urban migration
has been increasing rapidly, particularly to the principal
urban centers, with some estimates suggesting that the population
of Thimphu is increasing at 10% per annum. If the present
trend continues, the nation's urban population could approach
400,000 within the next 20 years. Although rural-urban migration
is a natural corollary of development and modernization, such
increases pose a major threat to stability. Many urban areas,
located in narrow valleys, are physically unable to absorb
such volumes of new inhabitants, and do not possess the necessary
physical and social infrastructure. Furthermore, rapid urbanization
could be environmentally and socially destructive, with unsustainable
levels of localized natural resource utilization and many
migrants unable to find the work that they seek. The creation
of suitable employment is already a critical issue, with an
excess demand for jobs in the modern sector and a shortage
of farm labor.
If harnessed prudently the elements embodied in traditional
systems might constitute a valuable development resource.
Indeed, where formal state institutions remain in the process
of evolution, the perpetuation of such informal arrangements
will greatly aid in the maintenance of stability and the provision
of additional opportunities. Furthermore, in catering for
the very specific conditions of a particular location, the
synergy of traditional and modern techniques might be highly
constructive towards the generation of appropriate localized
strategies. However, the relationship between traditional
and modern systems is not necessarily mutual, and can often
be competing and contradictory, leading to the supplanting
of the old with the new. The introduction of a partially developed
modern institutional infrastructure can have a disorientating
impact on efficacious traditional institutional arrangements,
and potentially negative implications on related social behavior.
Equity issues pose fundamental challenges for the efficient
and effective development and stability of the nation. Relatively
equal access to and control of resources greatly aids the
maintenance of an equitable society. A 1959 Land Reform and
subsequent state policy interventions have determined that
land and other resources are distributed relatively evenly
through society. The state maintains ownership and control
of the great majority of the national resource-base. Although
the physical and institutional infrastructure has improved
dramatically, and the vast majority of the population has
benefited in very tangible ways, the benefits have thus far
not been distributed equally between social groups and regions.
In remote and isolated areas in particular, lives remain characterized
by vulnerability, uncertainty and drudgery, where legitimate
expectations and aspirations are not being fully met. Ensuring
that such vulnerable and disadvantaged groups are able to
benefit more fully from the process of economic and social
development is a challenge that must be met in the years ahead.
Income differentials are a natural product of modernization,
however, it is important that these remain within acceptable
boundaries. This is currently promoted through redistributive
and regulatory policies, such as a progressive system of taxation
and the setting of defined parameters on the activities of
particular social groups. The opportunities available to an
emerging elite have thus been maintained within acceptable
boundaries. Although the state currently maintains relatively
balanced power relations, it will eventually be necessary
to formally institutionalize political conditions. Towards
this end, power is now being devolved through an extensive
process of decentralization. The outcome of such empowering
initiatives may be of critical future importance to the maintenance
of an equitable and just society.
Bhutanese women enjoy equality with men, both before the
law and in informal social arrangements. They are actively
involved in all areas of economic, political and social life,
as farmers, entrepreneurs, decision-makers, professionals
and homemakers. Within traditional society gender roles afford
equal status, power and freedom. However, there is the potential
that this situation might change under the different working
environments implied by modernization. Under changing circumstances,
there is the possibility that women's roles remain the same,
whereas men's roles are altered. Such a change might impact
upon the division of power within the household, and thereby
compromise gender equality in the future. Perhaps the area
where women are currently underrepresented is in formal decision-making
processes, although this situation is being rectified. It
will be increasingly important to mainstream gender roles
in society, to ensure that these remain equitable and opportunities
are distributed evenly.
Contemporary Bhutanese society possesses many of its traditional
traits, carried forward onto a changing context. These have
proved extremely beneficial in the preservation of a balanced
and integrated social environment. However, circumstances
are altering fundamentally and it cannot be guaranteed that
equilibriums will be maintained. At both the national and
individual levels objectives have transformed beyond recognition.
The social environment is now dynamic and the emerging pressures
possess a multidimensional complexity. It will involve a delicate
and nimble juggling act if the nation is to become successfully
modernized, whilst retaining the most valuable elements of
an established tradition. Within the larger urban environments
most still associate with their original village and maintain
close links through family, friends and extended livelihood
approaches. However, new, slightly narrower though often bigger,
communities have also evolved around families, classmates,
social status, career, or shared interests. Tiny microcosms
encourage the Buddhist values of interconnectedness and interdependence.
Is unlikely that such cohesion can be retained within a modern
context.