Particularly
during the revolutionary and difficult process of economic modernization,
the state plays a crucial role in effecting change. Bhutan's
economic development has been state-led and remains state dominated.
Given its ownership of the majority of the natural resource-base,
hydropower being a leading avenue for expansion and the huge
ongoing requirement for development interventions, this scenario
is unlikely to change in the near future. The already fundamental
importance of good governance and sound economic management
is therefore further enhanced. In this regard Bhutan possesses
the notable advantages of few current social, political or environmental
pressures, a relatively paternalistic government, responsible
political economy and a high degree of state influence over
the activities of the modern sector. The state therefore still
has considerable room for maneuver in its policy decisions.
A pragmatic and gradualist approach to economic development
is reflected in both the central concept of Gross National
Happiness being of greater importance to Gross National Product
and in a "Middle Path" strategy. These stress that
the development process should be informed by the imperatives
of balance and equity within and between spheres. Indeed,
Bhutan's vulnerable position places additional emphasis on
national security, and therefore stability. In this sense,
the economy remains one of a number of priorities. It is significant
that within the overall policy approach economic development
is only a sub-category supporting human development and self-reliance,
and framed by concerns for national security, good governance,
social equilibrium and environmental and cultural preservation.
Economic goals therefore need to be interpreted in relation
to respective social, political, cultural and ecological contexts.
The Royal Government of Bhutan is pursuing a human centered
approach to development. The economy may therefore be interpreted
from a livelihood perspective. As the country undergoes social
transition and the population becomes larger and better educated
and expectations expand, it will be increasingly necessary
for the economy to provide suitable employment opportunities.
Although development cannot be gauged entirely by the ability
to achieve steady economic growth and development, growth
is a precondition for successful transformation. Changes in
the social environment need to be translated into concomitant
increases in economic mobilization and productivity. The government
has proved particularly successful at maintaining the status
quo. However, the imperative of economic development presents
the new challenge of successfully transforming an underdeveloped
system as opposed to maintaining and managing a well-functioning
one.
The achievement of sustained economic growth is notoriously
problematic, and has been a major failing throughout the developing
world. During the initial stages of transition the economy
has been protected as much as possible and an emphasis has
been placed on stability. However, as the modernization process
proceeds, the challenges faced will become increasingly complex
and the policy decisions far from clear-cut. The economic
structure remains significantly underdeveloped, and there
is a risk that considerable social pressures will emerge as
acceptable livelihood opportunities are not created. Due to
the small size of economy and society, tapping into foreign
markets will be extremely important and growth will need to
be export-led. This places additional emphasis on competitiveness.
In an attempt to direct the economic structure towards the
country's comparative advantages the economy is being gradually
liberalized. The government is slowly deregulating the economy
and working towards the satisfaction of international trading
standards.
Three principal avenues have been identified for Bhutan's
sustainable development: increased self-sufficiency in food
production, hydropower expansion and industrial development.
These refer to the traditional and modern public and private
sectors respectively. The vast majority of Bhutanese earn
their livelihoods within the traditional agricultural sector
of the economy. Although the continued expansion of the modern
economy will generate a gradual change in the employment structure,
this situation is unlikely to transform in the near future.
Steady growth rates are therefore important towards the achievement
of balanced development and a stable transition. Indeed, as
the lowest common denominator, such progress fulfills important
economic and social roles, providing the majority of the population
a basic livelihood. The leading growth area is likely to be
horticulture (both fruits and vegetables). However, given
the nature of the landscape, opportunities for increases in
productivity lag behind those in other areas of the economy.
Most improvements though will impact upon people in the less
developed categories of society, and potentially raise the
welfare base.
Central to growth will be the prudent harnessing of the natural
resource-base, especially for the generation of hydropower,
and there remains considerable potential for further development
of these resources. Of the 16,280MW of the techno-economically
exploitable hydropower potential only 355MW has currently
been tapped, dominated by the 336MW Chukka scheme. This situation
is fast changing with the current construction of the Kurichu
(45MW), Basochhu (60.8MW) and Tala (1020MW) hydroelectric
projects. Mineral extraction remains relatively limited, with
only 30% of the country having been geologically mapped and
much of the potential commercial exploitability yet to be
determined. The industrial extraction of timber for export
in an unprocessed form is heavily discouraged, due to potential
environmental ramifications. The availability of a cheap and
reliable supply of energy will aid in the future efficiency
of natural resource-based processing industries.
Given the particular conditions in Bhutan, many forms of
enterprise are at a competitive disadvantage. However, the
uniqueness, wealth and diversity of the ecological and cultural
environments opens up the possibility of catering to very
specialized demands. There appears to be significant potential
for the exploration of such niche markets, for low volume
- high margin trade, which perfectly suit a situation where
there are high transactions costs. Examples include those
markets in genetic resources and obscure foodstuffs. Perhaps
the area where there exists the greatest prospect for growth
is the tourism industry. Concern for the preservation of ecology
and culture has led to the careful and gradual exploitation
of this considerable asset. However, given the appropriate
investments in infrastructure, the expansion of the industry,
and the promotion of such markets as eco-tourism and cultural
tourism, would be entirely consistent with other development
objectives.
Efforts to deepen and broaden the nation's economic structure
are confronted with formidable obstacles. These include a
lack of semi-skilled and skilled labor, the small and still
fragmented domestic market, the low purchasing power of the
population, and severe diseconomies in production and distribution,
translating in high production costs. Furthermore, given the
relatively high wage rates and transportation costs, Bhutan
is not ideally suited to the most basic forms of industrial
production. It is likely that the country will need to specialize
in more advanced industries competing on the international
market. The government has selected the theme of 'sophistication
and civilization' as the guiding principle for industrial
transformation. This presents the vision of environmentally
friendly industries, using sophisticated technology to produce
high value/low volume products for the world market. Greater
advantage will be made of the country's environmental and
cultural resources, in both the promotion of tourism and the
marketing of exports.
The continued emergence of the private sector in both rural
and urban areas will be of fundamental importance. This will
better integrate the population as stakeholders in the development
process, increase options and opportunities, and create channels
for the fulfillment of changing aspirations. The development
of entrepreneurial skills and the creation of an environment
nurturing to productive business ventures is of critical importance
to the expansion of domestic and export markets and the restructuring
of the economy along the lines of comparative advantage. Indeed,
the harnessing of more flexible and dynamic individual initiatives
will be fundamental to successful economic development. Unfortunately
a follow-the-leader syndrome is currently evident, where private
initiative has become heavily concentrated around certain
business areas such as tourism, construction and petty trade.
There have been only limited cases where enterprising individuals
have ventured into more innovative fields.
That the modern private sector has been slow to respond to
changes elsewhere may allude to some telling realities. The
sector remains heavily trade-based, where a trading mentality
encourages ventures where there is a relatively quick return
on investment. Furthermore, the profitability of the financial
sector leads to tight investment regulations, limiting access
to significant amounts of capital. Both factors have possibly
hindered industrial expansion. Potentially most disturbing
of all may be the current lack of profitable business opportunities.
In this light there is a risk of a dual economy emerging,
with a small, modern, export-oriented enclave set in a sea
of micro-enterprises producing low-value products with simple
technologies for the domestic market, with few interactions
between them. Whatever the primary reasons, it will become
increasingly important for the state to continue to develop
an environment fostering to productive enterprise and to place
a greater emphasis on the modern sector of the economy in
general and certain key strategic industries in particular.
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